College Football Relativity
September is the busiest month for me, so I've not had much time to think about or digest the Tennessee Vols' woes (two shellackings on the road to obviously better teams). Living three time zones away makes it easier to have a more nonchalant attitude towards their misery. But I feel like I do need to add my two cents worth, so here goes.
The easy swipe is to knock Phil Fulmer. And while I'm not a Fulmer apologist, I must point out that the guy has been very successful over his tenure. He's the most senior coach in what is the toughest conference in America...not only is the conference the best top-to-bottom in college football, its fans have expectations, hopes, dreams, and unhealthy identity projections most other conferences' fans don't have. So to hold on to his job this long while winning a few conference championships and a national title says a lot about the guy and his staff. Maybe he is lazy. Who knows? That's speculation.
For Tennessee, however, I think the bigger issue is how the college football recruiting landscape has changed in the past 10 years. Put simply, the state of Tennessee is not the football player producing powerhouse that Texas, Florida, and California are...or, for that matter, are Georgia, Alabama, or Ohio. During Tennessee's best years in recent memory (1995-2001), almost all of their star players were not from Tennessee. In fact, Fulmer used this as a selling point, touting Tennessee's "national" reach. Most of UT's best players during that era were recruited from the Carolinas, Georgia, Louisiana, and California. They would even get the occasional blue-chipper from Alabama or Florida. I'd suggest that UT was able to do this because the flagship programs in each of those states had football programs that were underachieving or on the downslide.
I think that's changed. Whether it be Pete Carroll or Jeff Tedford in California, Mark Richt in Georgia, Spurrier in SC, Saban/Miles in Louisiana, etc. - each of those coaches has more or less drawn fences around their local territories and are retaining much (if not most) of their best, local talent. Tennessee still has had decent recruiting classes, of course, but I don't know how reliable those prognosticators' assessments of recruiting classes can truly be. Moreover, everyone knows Nick Saban is going to do this in Alabama, cutting off another potential pipeline (and adding another L in the loss column each year). The recruiting competition has gotten much tougher, and you can almost track the inverse ascendancy of these programs against the descendency of "national" programs without natural recruiting bases like Tennessee, Michigan, Nebraska, and perhaps Notre Dame. Two coaches in those four programs who won national titles (Carr and Fulmer) bought themselves a nice lacquer of grace with those titles, but I think that grace is running out quickly. And frankly speaking, I don't know that coaching changes at either place will automatically make that much of a difference. College football has become increasingly local in its recruiting, it seems to me, and until the state of Tennessee begins producing a similar number of blue-chippers as Georgia, Florida, or even Alabama, UT's future may not be much brighter than it is with Phat Phil at the helm.
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