Books, Beaches, & Blather

Reaction from the National Review

The pride and joy of conservatism sounds terribly optimistic about the GOP's chances.

NYT Does CA

Go figure, California is hard to figure out:

This is the state where one lawmaker tried to legislate against spanking last year, while another group tried to eliminate domestic partners rights, and where Republicans often “out-green” Democrats, who in turn can be just as tax adverse as Republicans.

and

For those who would be president, California is like an inaccessible love interest, stared at from across the country with both longing and frustration, its suitors aggrieved by their fumbling inability to connect.

Yeah, try living here.

Irrelevance

Governor Schwarzenegger will escort Nancy Reagan to tonight's GOP Presidential Debate at the Reagan Library over in Simi, where he and she will sit in the front row very close to Cindy McCain.  That symbolism, after McCain receives Giuliani's endorsement on the steps of the Reagan Library - a place which seems to have become the spiritual Mount Olympus for the Republican Party.  Tonight, the mantle passes.

Clinton and Obama are slowly winging their way towards Southern California for tomorrow night's debate at the Kodak Theater, a venue which also serves as the home of the Oscars.  Hollywood Boulevard is being closed for the entire day tomorrow so they can set up the red carpets for the candidates' entrance.  For at least one night Obama can revel in the Tinseltown glitz, even if midnight soon strikes and HRC crushes him next week.

Even Mike Huckabee - Mike Huckabee - is drawing local media coverage for his afternoon rally at the Four Seasons through the canyon in Westlake Village.  Yes, that Four Seasons, the Four Seasons By The Costco.

But what makes me laugh is the fact that some guy named George W. Bush will be speaking about the economy in Torrance this afternoon, and no one - no local tv outlet, no local paper - seems to care.  That may change this afternoon (they may cut away to show a few minutes of his speech), but when Mike Huckabee gets more press than a sitting President....

Ouch.

Update (1:24pm):  The LAT's splashy mid-day update is on the city's new pot vending machines.  Still no mention of the President's visit.

Update (1:27pm): I've actually now read the piece on the Pot.  Does anyone else think this is a line straight from The Onion?

At the Timothy Leary Medical Dispensary in the San Fernando Valley, the vending machine is accessible only during business hours.

Dream as Big as the Kansas Sky

Wow.  Wow.  This guy is the Reagan of my generation.

This election is our chance - our moment - to restore the simple dream of those who came before us for another generation of Americans. But only if we can come together and like previous generations did and close that divide between a people and its leaders in Washington.

Because in the end, the choice in this election is not between regions or religions or genders. It's not about rich versus poor; young versus old; and it is not about black versus white.

It's about the past versus the future.

It's about whether we settle for the same divisions and distractions and drama that passes for politics today, or whether we reach for a politics of common sense and innovation; of shared sacrifice and shared prosperity.

In the face of war and depression; through great struggle and tremendous sacrifice, that is the future that my grandparents' generation forged for their children. It is why that little girl who was born at Fort Leavenworth could dream as big as the Kansas sky. And it is why I stand before you today - because there are two little girls I tuck in at night who deserve a world in which they can dream those same big dreams; in which they can have the same chances as any other child living any other place. It is a dream I share for your children and all of our children, and that is why it's American - always hoping, always reaching, always striving for that better day ahead. I hope you'll join me on that journey, and I thank you for welcoming me back to the place my family called home.

A Few Thoughts About California

With Super Tuesday coming around the corner - a day when over half the country will go to their party's respective polls, from Georgia to California- I'll offer these thoughts about the California primary as I see it today:

1.  I sense that the Kennedy clan's endorsement of Obama is a very big deal here.  Not only is the most popular figure in the entire state (St. Maria of the Palisades) a member of that family, her brother is very influential locally.  If she can somehow find herself on a dais behind Obama during one of his rallies these endorsements may actually mean something, especially in terms of superdelegates.  California's Democratic party is still very machine-dominated, but the Kennedy endorsements give a lot of the establishment here (like him) political cover for defecting from the Clintons.

2.  California's delegate count is apportioned by congressional district and not by popular vote.  It's entirely possible for HRC and McCain to win the state by a margin up to 6-7% and still not win the highest number of delegates.  In other words, it will be just as important where candidates are winning as how many votes they're winning.  On the Republican side, expect McCain to sweep San Diego and Orange County and the L.A. area,  but don't be surprised if Romney does very well in the Central Valley and Central Coast.  And Romney will do very well in the Bay Area.

3.  L.A. County always reports last.  On election night, if you see Obama and Romney up by 4-5% with approximately 60-70% of the California vote in, know that they're toast in terms of the state's overall popular vote.  In most statewide general elections, the Republican is nearly always ahead by 4-5% with 70% reporting.  L.A. county normally waits until the very end of the night to report (rarely before 10pm PST), and then their vote total comes down like the Sword of Damocles upon the Republicans.  In 2006, Schwarzenegger had around 65% of the overall vote at about 10pm; he won the state 54-46 after L.A. county came in.  So the takeaway is this: realizing that L.A. County, a county larger than the entire state of Michigan (and all its congressional districts) is HRC country, and the Bay Area is Obama country, if it's even close at 10pm PST next Tuesday night assume HRC will win California in a landslide.

4.  The San Francisco paper endorsed Obama.  We don't yet know who the L.A. Times will endorse, but I'm betting it will be HRC.  Remember, California is essentially two states that can't stand each other.  Moreover, the LAT will endorse HRC for many of the same reasons the NYT did: as a national paper they crave access, and they are much more fearful of a Clinton backlash.

5.  What day this week will Governor Schwarzenegger endorse John McCain?

6.  John McCain and Hillary Clinton will win California's popular vote but by no means will beat their opponents by much on the delegate count.  This will not, therefore, sink Romney or Obama, and after Super Tuesday we'll all be off to the races.

From the Provinces

Great article here that touches on themes of misplaced coastal snobbery.

Dirtfight at the Law School

Last night's Democratic debate was touchy, but this is one conversation I gotta see.

Meanwhile, in the GOP...

...conservative David Brooks offers his take.

Golden State Democrats

Once upon a time there was a statewide race in California between two leading Democrats.  One Democrat campaigned as a "new" democrat; the other proudly ran as an FDR-style democrat.  One democrat was youthful looking and charismatic; the other democrat looked tired and weary and had been around forever, touting experience at every campaign event.  One democrat was favored by the young and by independents; the other was favored by the elderly and every interest group that traditionally comprised the democratic coalition.  The first democrat was the darling of Silicon Valley and the Bay Area; the second democrat was the favorite of the Southern California Democratic machine.  Heading into the election, polls showed that the race was a dead heat; on election night, however, the Southern California Democratic Machine, the elderly, the Latino community, and Los Angeles County delivered the election for the second candidate, the far more traditional Democrat in the race.

And then, in the general election, Phil Angelides got crushed by Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Many people felt that if Steve Westly had won the Democratic primary in 2006 he could have upset the incumbent governor, but it was all water under the bridge because in California, the Democratic Party machine is incredibly influential.

And so, of course, in 2008 Steve Westly endorsed Barack Obama and Phil Angelides endorsed Hillary Clinton, and history will repeat itself.  Again.

Still Here

Sorry for the blogging silence.  Last week I was pretty sick...on the night of the New Hampshire primary I began running a fever and got so sick I missed two days of work (I very rarely miss work, not necessarily because I'm a good boy scout, but because if given the choice between sitting in my house feeling miserable or walking 200 yards to sit in my office to feel miserable I normally opt for the latter.)  At the very least I guess I can say that Hillary Clinton must literally make me sick.  I'm not back to 100%, but I've been too busy with work this week to really care.

I fear that I'm tiring of political coverage.  Already.  Deep down I know someone will be elected President in November, but at this point I'm not so sure any of these candidates can actually win.

Big news here on campus today.  Rumors had been swirling and continue to swirl violently about what exactly has gone down.  It's always dramatic when a coach leaves in the middle of a season, but I have faith in our athletics department to right the ship in the men's basketball program.  In nearly every other athletic endeavor Pepperdine fields a winning (and occasional championship) team; I don't think men's basketball should necessarily be any different, though I am realistic that any successful Pepperdine men's basketball coach will bolt for bigger pastures a la Harrick, Romar, Asbury, Van Breda Kolff, etc.  I have to believe that there must be more than a few high school blue-chippers who would like to go to a school where during any given summer day you can find pickup games involving Reggie Miller and Kevin Garnett.